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November 20, 2024

Looking Ahead: My Optimistic Linux Predictions for 2025

 

As we approach 2025, the landscape for Linux appears promising, and several key predictions can be made for the open-source operating system.

Major Performance Improvements

Recent developments hint that the Linux kernel may experience significant performance boosts. Notably, a recent finding revealed a staggering 4000% increase in performance due to a minor code modification. While this figure emerged from a controlled testing environment, it sets the tone for anticipated enhancements in 2025. It’s predicted that these improvements could surpass the capabilities of both MacOS and Windows, decisively establishing Linux as the most efficient operating system on the market.

Success of the COSMIC Desktop

Anticipation surrounds the COSMIC desktop, currently under development by System76. Traditionally, System76’s Pop!_OS utilized the GNOME desktop, but the new COSMIC desktop aims to offer greater performance optimized specifically for their hardware. The expectation is that by the end of 2025, COSMIC will achieve considerable popularity among Linux distributions, largely due to its tailored performance.

Breaking the 5% Market Share Barrier

In previous predictions, the idea was floated that Linux might inch closer to a 10% market share. While this may have seemed overly ambitious, the current trend suggests a near 5% share is achievable. The past year has shown Linux’s growth, hinting at further advancements in 2025, thanks to both improved performance and a growing appreciation for open-source software.

Expanding Gaming Ecosystem

Linux’s potential for growth is compounded by its gaming ecosystem. With platforms like Steam becoming increasingly accessible on Linux and an uptick in support for the Wayland display server, gaming on Linux is set to flourish in 2025. This expansion is crucial, considering the gaming industry’s vast market revenue, which is nearing $500 billion.

AI and Linux

Contrarily, artificial intelligence (AI) is not anticipated to play a significant role in the Linux desktop environment in 2025. Although AI technologies evolve rapidly, they remain largely independent of mainstream Linux distributions. The focus will remain on creating user-friendly, reliable software rather than embedding AI’s complexities into the operating system.

Overall, the predictions for Linux in 2025 center on substantial performance improvements, the successful launch of System76’s COSMIC desktop, a greater market presence, an expanding gaming ecosystem, and a cautious approach towards integrating AI. As these trends unfold, 2025 could represent a pivotal year for Linux enthusiasts and users alike.


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